Project Overview
Commodities
- Additional Plants: other
Practices
- Crop Production: varieties and cultivars
- Education and Training: on-farm/ranch research
- Production Systems: organic agriculture
Proposal summary:
This project addresses a critical challenge to the long-term sustainability of small-scale agriculture in San Diego County's Inland Valleys. Traditional high-value crops face increasing financial risk due to water scarcity and extreme weather events (frequent frost and summer heatwaves). Agave offers a vital opportunity for economic and environmental diversification as an ultra-low-input perennial crop, yet growers lack the crucial data needed to select the correct species for their specific, challenging conditions (rocky, sloped soils).
This three-year Research and Education initiative will test five agave species in two representative Inland Valley soil treatments: Greenfield (deep, loamy, low-slope) and Cieneba-Rock (shallow, rocky loam on high slope). We will monitor the critical Early Development (Establishment) phase of 2-year-old hijuelos and track their progression through the Active Storage (Biomass Accumulation) stage, collecting granular monthly data on growth, survival, and stress response (e.g., Foliar Damage Score).
The core deliverable is the Agave Viability Index (AVI), a Random Forest Machine Learning model, developed in collaboration with Dr. Paula Guzmán-Delgado (UC Davis). The AVI will use site-specific weather and soil data to predict the best-performing species with a target 85% accuracy.
The results will be translated into a one-page, user-friendly Agave Suitability Scorecard supported by a Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) detailing Net Present Value (NPV) per Acre and water savings. Dissemination will occur through a structured Agave Webinar Series, Monthly Insight Videos, and Annual Symposium Participation, directly empowering a target of at least 50 unique Inland Valley farmers to successfully integrate this heat- and drought-tolerant crop, thereby enhancing regional farm resilience and resource efficiency. The project is supported by a precise $35,000 budget, including $5,000 for 500 plants necessary for rigorous replication.
Project objectives from proposal:
Research objectives:
- Optimize Agave Establishment and Collect Comprehensive Phenotypic Data. Achieve a minimum 90% plant survival rate for all species through the critical Early Development stage (Months 1-12) and collect continuous, granular phenotypic and environmental data from the Early Development through the Active Storage stage (Months 1-36).
- Develop and Validate the Agave Viability Index (AVI) Model. Develop and validate the Agave Viability Index (AVI), a Random Forest Regression Machine Learning (ML) model, demonstrating a minimum predictive accuracy of 85% on unseen hold-out test data in classifying species suitability and predicting long-term vigor.
Education objectives:
- Agave Suitability Dissemination & Tools : Translate the predictive results of the AVI model into a user-friendly Agave Suitability Scorecard and Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) and provide comprehensive training to a minimum of 50 unique Inland Valley producers via structured outreach activities by Month 36.