Mapping the current extent and suitability of agroforestry in the US Midwest

View the project final report

Commodities

Practices

• Crop Production: agroforestry, alley cropping, silvopasture, windbreaks
• Education and Training: decision support system
• Natural Resources/Environment: carbon sequestration, hedgerows, riparian buffers
• Sustainable Communities: public policy

Background

Sustainable agricultural practices like agroforestry are necessary to ensure global food security, mitigate climate change, conserve biodiversity, and provide ecosystem services. Such practices can also boost economic profitability, protect human health, and enhance well-being. Agroforestry, defined as the integration of trees into crop and livestock systems, is widely promoted as a sustainable land use practice. However, the adoption of these practices remains limited in the US. The need for agroforestry assessments has been identified in national statements like the USDA Agroforestry Strategic Framework. We have also identified this need through key informant interviews with extension agents, USDA personnel, non-profit organizations, and producers. This project assesses the social-ecological suitability and pathways for expanding agroforestry in the Midwest to support US agroforestry policy and programs.

Research Approach and Summary of Results

We focused on assessing the feasibility of expanding agroforestry in Illinois through geospatial analysis, modeling, and semi-structured interviews with producers and program administrators. Given important recent investments in expanding US agroforestry (The Nature Conservancy, 2022), this work aims to identify target areas for agroforestry practices and describe perceived opportunities and barriers to an appropriate agroforestry expansion based on stakeholder inputs.

Agroforestry Suitability Modeling

High-resolution maps showing the potential suitability of agroforestry based on social, economic, and biophysical factors (“suitability maps”) can be powerful resources for decision-makers to design and target agricultural conservation programs effectively. The results of this work will help inform agricultural policies promoted by governments and organizations, improve targeting of programs, and inform farmers’ decisions based on environmental and economic suitability models. Using a range of relevant environmental and socioeconomic criteria, we found that agroforestry is predicted to have the highest potential for expansion in southern and western Illinois. Throughout the entire US Midwest, agroforestry had the highest overall social-ecological suitability throughout much of Missouri, south-central Iowa, western Nebraska, eastern Kansas, southeastern Wisconsin, and eastern Ohio through southern Indiana and Illinois.

Our findings suggest that agroforestry has substantial potential to address environmental and social concerns throughout the Midwest by improving environmental conditions and creating new sustainable systems that support communities and livelihoods. Our analysis integrates environmental, social, and economic data at different spatial resolutions to identify agroforestry program priority areas while offering the flexibility to target based on specific selected features. Agroforestry strategically targeted to these areas of the Midwest is estimated to generate almost five times more carbon storage potential than cover cropping on the same areas.

We also emphasize the importance of including socioeconomic variables in suitability mapping. Some areas with high opportunities to use agroforestry to address environmental concerns may have implementation challenges due to social, economic, and tree growth constraints. Specific examples include central Illinois, central and northern Iowa, and northern Indiana. However, considering that agroforestry is a voluntary conservation and production practice, typically carried out by private landowners, the feasibility of using it as a sustainability solution needs to include the environmental priorities along with social and economic feasibility. This more holistic– and realistic– approach may inform more effective agroforestry interventions.

Agroforestry transitions: stakeholder perceptions of agroforestry in the US Midwest

The agroforestry suitability maps were complemented by an analysis of Illinois producers’ and program administrators’ perceptions of agroforestry’s suitability using a scenario of expanding agroforestry to 5-10% of their farmland and to agricultural lands within their county of residence. We assessed the perceived nature values attributed to agroforestry, the role of values in adoption decisions, and the barriers and opportunities in transitioning towards an agroforestry landscape. We found that relational values and non-material values played key roles in agroforesters’ adoption decisions, which has been found in other temperate contexts around the world. In understanding the role of nature values in determining adoption, policies and programs may be designed to align with producer priorities. The assessment of agroforestry’s nature values also suggests that agroforestry could be framed to align with different stakeholder groups and incorporated into policies with aligned missions. For example, the Illinois Nutrient Loss Reduction Strategy currently only includes minimal reference to agroforestry. Additionally, there was a strong perception that agroforestry has the potential to promote rural development and reduce poverty by establishing new markets and agrotourism, which could also help incorporate agroforestry into rural development policies. 

Overall, agroforestry adopters and program administrators had positive perceptions of the agroforestry transition scenario, citing potential benefits to nature, ecosystem services, and quality of life. On the other hand, conventional farmers had mixed views, with overall moderate to strong negative views of the agroforestry scenario, primarily due to concerns over production, economics, and management challenges. A primary difference between agroforestry adopters and non-adopters was their view on the material value of agroforestry: agroforestry practitioners viewed agroforestry as an opportunity to diversify production, generate new revenue streams, and produce nutritious foods and high value/value-added goods whereas non-practitioners (e.g. “conventional” farmers) tended to view agroforestry as taking land out of production for conservation purposes. 

Summary of Conclusions

This project contributes to interdisciplinary knowledge on land use science and policy, sustainability science, and agroforestry. First, land systems are interdependent with the meaning and values humans attribute to them. Understanding the diverse values people attribute to landscapes is critical for including multiple values into policymaking to create more just and sustainable solutions. Additionally, in better understanding the challenges and policy barriers agricultural producers face when considering conservation practices like agroforestry, conservation policies could integrate this knowledge generated by producers and practitioners. Conservation policies could be adapted to allow greater flexibility that accounts for the multiple goals and values of potential implementers to meet both the environmental goals of conservation policy as well as the socioeconomic goals often prioritized by the land operators. Additionally, by including multiple social-ecological variables into the agroforestry suitability model (soil erosion, water quality, soil organic carbon sequestration potential, tree species suitability, net farm income, demographic, and conservation norms), the model generated estimates of areas where agroforestry could meet multiple objectives, rather than focusing on singular goals. This type of assessment provides a more holistic view of agroforestry’s potential to provide solutions for multiple interests and garner greater social and political support. The geospatial analysis was complemented by qualitative work to form a more comprehensive assessment of agroforestry’s suitability in Illinois and inform policy and incentive structures to advance sustainability science. 

The overarching goal of this research project is to inform Midwest agroforestry policy through assessing feasibility of transitioning land to agroforestry at a large scale using a geospatial suitability assessment and interviews with stakeholders in Illinois. The methods and tools developed through this project will lay the foundation to evaluate the political and economic feasibility of agroforestry in the US.

To achieve this goal, the project includes two interlinked objectives: (1) map the suitability of agroforestry practices and predict priority areas for agroforestry development across the US Midwest, and (2) conduct semi-structured interviews with producers and program administrators throughout Illinois to understand the perceived feasibility of expanding agroforestry in Illinois and assess the roles of nature values in determining agroforestry adoption decisions. The results of these objectives will contribute towards the US agroforestry agenda and provide insights to shape future agroforestry policy.

Agroforestry Suitability Modeling

To meet the first objective, we conducted an agroforestry multi-criteria decision analysis to address the following research questions. 

1. Where in the US Midwest could agroforestry be targeted to offer the greatest environmental benefits while considering socioeconomic feasibility?
2. What are the potential benefits and tradeoffs of transitioning current agricultural systems to agroforestry, and what are the policy implications for supporting efficient expansion of agroforestry in the US Midwest?

To meet this first objective, we have developed agroforestry suitability maps using geospatial analysis and modeling to identify potential priority areas for targeting agroforestry in Illinois as well as the twelve-state north-central region (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin). This suitability map shows regions where agroforestry is expected to reduce the risk of environmental degradation, support productive tree growth, and be socioeconomically viable. This framework for agroforestry suitability modeling was developed based on agroforestry literature and key informant interviews to identify model parameters and user needs. We created separate maps for alley cropping, riparian buffer, silvopasture, and windbreak suitability. Results reveal considerable opportunities for expanding agroforestry practice within specific regions, where policies could be targeted. The suitability map can be used to inform agricultural conservation policy and decision-making related to agroforestry in specific locations. This work also provides a theoretical foundation for interdisciplinary suitability modeling that can be adapted for use in other global regions. 

Agroforestry transitions: stakeholder perceptions of agroforestry in the US Midwest

To meet the second objective, we focused on agroforestry practices within the state of Illinois as a case study to examine stakeholder views of an agroforestry landscape transition (increasing agroforestry up to 5-10% of agricultural land).

The goal of this research project is to advance agroforestry knowledge and policy through understanding stakeholder perceptions of agroforestry in the Illinois context. We conducted semi-structured interviews with Illinois crop producers, livestock producers, and program administrators to answer the following research questions:

1. What are the intrinsic, instrumental, and relational values attributed to agroforestry practices? To what extent do producers’ values (intrinsic, instrumental, relational) inform their agroforestry adoption decision?
2. To what extent do agricultural stakeholders support a local expansion of agroforestry?
   1. What are the positive, negative, and neutral perceptions of an agroforestry landscape scenario (transitioning 5-10% of agricultural land to agroforestry within their county or administrative region)?
   2. What are the perceived opportunities and barriers to expanding agroforestry in Illinois, and what are the implications for agroforestry policy?

We analyzed the roles of nature values in determining agroforestry adoption decisions to inform more sustainable and reflexive agroforestry planning and policy. We conducted semi-structured interviews with producers (18 agroforesters and 8 conventional farmers) and program administrators (13) throughout the northern, central, and southern regions of Illinois. We examined the perceived positive, negative, and neutral values of agroforestry on nature (intrinsic), ecosystem services (instrumental), and quality of life (relational). We then assessed how the values of participants influenced their adoption decisions and explored the perceived opportunities and barriers for expanding agroforestry in the region, including those related to financial risk and funding, management, equipment and plant material, market access, science knowledge and education, and climate change.  

Summary of Outputs

The outcomes of the first objective included creating and disseminating the suitability map as an interactive tool for policymakers, agencies, and producers. Our paper on the agroforestry decision support tool is currently under review at Environmental Research Letters. We developed an agroforestry decision-support tool as a Google Earth Engine app, which will be publicly available and distributed through relevant organizations, including University of Illinois Extension and Iowa Learning Farms, among others. The Agroforestry Decision Support Tool is available publicly here: https://agroforestrymap.projects.earthengine.app/view/agroforestry-suitability-tool. The tool is currently in beta testing with potential end-users. Preliminary results were shared at the 2023 Forests and Livelihoods: Assessment, Research, and Engagement Meeting in Nairobi, Kenya on October 14, 2023 (https://www.forestlivelihoods.org/annual-meeting-2023/), the Iowa Learning Farms Webinar Series on April 24, 2024 (https://www.iowalearningfarms.org/webinars), and the 2024 Agriculture, Food & Human Values Society (AFHVS) and the Association for the Study of Food and Society (ASFS) Conference held in Syracuse, New York. Continued conversations with policymakers and stakeholders will help us track all the above outcomes. The expected outcomes of the first objective include reaching researchers and policymakers to illustrate the potential contributions of agroforestry and enable future research quantifying the impacts of agroforestry. We will track this outcome through the citations and downloads of our publications and repository/tool access counts. 

The expected outcomes of this second objective include delivering summaries and publications to the interview participants. We currently have two  manuscripts in preparation based on the results of the semi-structured interviews: (1) paper focused on the role of nature values in agroforestry adoption decision-making (target journal: Ecosystem Services), and (2) paper focused on agroforestry transitions and the opportunities and barriers to agroforestry adoption in Illinois (target journal: Land Use Policy). We collected information from agroforester interviewees related to their direct experiences with conservation policy, agroforestry management, and specific challenges and solutions they found in managing agroforestry systems. We plan on disseminating infographics and informal publications to inform agroforestry policy and program needs and share participants insights to agroforestry success.