Great Plains Agroforestry: Evaluation of Bioenergy Feedstock and Carbon Sequestration as Potential Long-term Revenue Streams to Diversify Landowner Income

Great Plains Agroforestry: Evaluation of Bioenergy Feedstock and Carbon Sequestration as Potential Long-term Revenue Streams to Diversify Landowner Income

Summary

Year two of this project focused on qualitative and quantitative analysis of focus group and operator survey data impacts to farmer interest in the production of woody biomass within the Northern Great Plains region (NGP). We conducted five focus groups total, one per state in Kansas, Nebraska, and North Dakota, and two in South Dakota between August 6, 2013 and April 10, 2014. In summary, our Northern Great Plains famer-oriented focus group series illustrates the complexities associated with:  1) farmer definitions of agricultural marginality; 2) attitudes towards trees and bioenergy production. All the while also characterizing influences on farmer/rancher interest in woody biomass production. In addition to the focus groups sessions, we collected quantitative data via a  region-wide representative survey of farmers and ranchers managing marginal land captures a snapshot of operator interest in woody biomass production; data collection took place from January 20, 2014 through March 12, 2014. Results of the survey indicate that 61% of farmers and ranchers have some degree of interest in woody biomass production, while results from an ordered probit regression further illustrate how farm/ranch system attributes, individual farmer/rancher characteristics, relevant attitudes and knowledge significantly affect the varying degrees of farmer interest in managing/ producing woody biomass. Data from both methods allow us to highlight attributes of operators who are most likely to be early adopters of a woody biomass crop, can serve as an input to local or regional assessments of potential for renewable energy production, and have implications for the development of relevant policy initiatives and management practices. Further analysis of focus group and survey data will capture relevant information to inform spatial components and the site selection of biophysical research scheduled to occur in 2015.  Field-level financial spreadsheets are being calibrated for short-rotation woody biomass systems as well as complimentary agroforestry practices (e.g., woody vegetative environmental buffers, field windbreaks, tree-base riparian buffers) suitable for the NGP region. State specific break-even biomass prices and yields will be determined with these tools.

Objectives/Performance Targets

1) Focus Groups on Land Use. Conduct one focus group in each state within the study region to inform farmer/rancher survey, site selection for subsequent biophysical component, and to add to the richness of the sociological examination by exploring nuances in farmer interest in establishing trees for biomass production on marginal agricultural land.

2) Financial Analysis of Potential Profitability. Begin development of field-level financial assessment tools.

Accomplishments/Milestones

1) Focus Groups on Land Use. We conducted five focus groups total, one per state in Kansas, Nebraska, and North Dakota, and two in South Dakota between August 6, 2013 and April 10, 2014. Participants included individuals who were responsible for on-farm decision-making. Farmers and ranchers were queried on the conditions that constitute marginality relative to their land base and associated management strategies within their farm system, allowing their self-determined definitions to provide context for subsequent discussion. We then explored farmer and rancher knowledge, attitudes, and beliefs associated with agroforestry in general, and woody biomass specifically. In total, 35 farmers and ranchers participated in the focus groups. Briefly, there are three interrelated ways that NGP farmers and ranchers perceive marginal agricultural land, including biophysical factors (such as slope, poor yields), economic/management drivers of marginality, and marginality relative to other land-use options. Overall, there was a broad general interest in the establishment and management of trees for multifunctional outcomes within participants’ farm/ranch systems (environmental and production). Farmers and ranchers noted the potential utilitarian benefits of woody systems largely in the context,utilizing woody systems to enhance profit potential of their existing cropping systems or as a way to expand profit potential through income diversification (e.g., selling biomass). They additionally noted environmental and cultural benefits offered by trees (e.g., water quality benefits, habitat, carbon storage, etc.). Participants within the South Dakota and Kansas focus groups noted the biophysical difficulty of growing trees within the western portion of their states as a major barrier to utilizing trees for biomass or any purpose within their farm/ranch system. Conversely, farmers and ranchers in all focus groups noted problems resulting from undersireable “weed trees”. Participants generally had two orientations towards interest in supplying biomass; some farmers expressing that their interest in a multifunctional system is tempered by financial need, while others noted a deliberate weighing of perceived trade-offs between financial benefits and non-monetary benefits afforded by woody systems. Participants in Kansas reflected positive attitudes towards the use of government programs to achieve farm system goals, while discussions in Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota resulted in a rich discussion regarding the often-negative consequences of participating in a government program. Some of the reluctance was tied to a general aversion to government programs period. Reasons cited ranged from general mistrust of the government, the quantity of paperwork and other “red tape” associated with state and federal government programs; to more systemic consequences such as exploring who ultimately benefits from land enrolled in a conservation program. Interestingly, it was noted that various incentive programs might well encourage innovation in the context of land use, thereby facilitating adoption of woody biomass. In order for farmers/ranchers to participate as suppliers of woody biomass, they require a greater degree of information in order to assess the reality of the opportunity within the context of their existing agricultural system. Information needs expressed by participants in all focus groups fit into three broad categories (1) technical information relevant to the establishment, growth, harvesting, and marketing of woody biomass, (2) the environmental sustainability of producing biomass on marginal land, and (3) the economic sustainability of producing a biomass crop within their farm system.

2) Farm Operator Survey. The target population for this component consisted of farmers and ranchers in four states in the Northern Great Plains region: Kansas, Nebraska, North Dakota and South Dakota. The sample frame consisted of a list of farmers and ranchers purchased from Survey Sampling International (SSI).  The main sample included 1,600 farmers/ranchers (400 from each state) with a replicate sample of 400 (100 from each state), for a total sample of 2000.  The SSI sampling frame is compiled primarily from records of government farm program participants obtained from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service and Farm Services Agency.  Data collection was facilitated by Iowa State University’s Survey and Behavioral Research Services (SBRS). Data collection took place from January 20, 2014 through March 12, 2014. The project received approval prior to data collection from the Iowa State University Institutional Review Board (IRB).  A total of 454 interviews were completed with farmers and ranchers in the sample.  Response rates are as follows: Kansas 32%, Nebraska 33%, North Dakota 27%, and South Dakota 31%; overall response rate was 31%. Observations were stratified based on state and farm operation type as classified by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) and were weighted based upon each stratum’s sampling probability; calculated using estimated strata population size and adjusted based upon non-response rates.  Along with descriptive statistics and group analysis, an ordered probit regression was used to examine influential factors on a farmer’s level of interest in growing and selling woody biomass. Briefly, overall there appears to be considerable interest within the NGP region in the use of trees for biomass production and other concomitant land-use benefits. Sixty-one percent of the farmers and ranchers surveyed expressed some level of interest in producing woody biomass, with 10% of respondents reporting they were “very interested”. In summary, the part-time farmers in our survey were more likely to be interested in woody biomass production as were younger farmers. Farmers who had completed college were more likely to be interested in woody biomass production. Farm size was influential with producers in charge of larger farms, being more interested in producing bioenergy crops (particularly those producers specializing in wheat production); though as the amount of cropland dedicated to corn production increase, interest in bioenergy tree systems is reduced perhaps due to higher opportunity costs associated with higher quality farmland often utilized for corn production in the region. Land tenure was also a factor with those who rent more farmland then they own expressing a higher interest in woody biomass (though it is not known if there is an interest in using rented land for woody biomass production). Farmers and ranchers who reported more resource concerns (e.g., water based, wind, streambank erosion) on their land and/or have what they believe to be a significant amount of marginal land were more likely to report a higher interest in establishing woody biomass systems on their farms.  Farmers and ranchers who reported a higher willingness to accept “risk” (self-defined) also have increased interest in producing biomass compared to those who self-reported as less willing to take on risk.  As factors that may well mitigate various types of risk, farmers who believe that a woody biomass system would be compatible with their existing farm/ranch production systems and who rank the importance of various tree related benefits (particularly if they believe that trees bring or enhance recreational opportunities and carbon) have a higher interest level in producing woody biomass. Unsurprisingly, farmers and ranchers who more strongly agree that woody biomass markets will expand and that demand for biomass use will increase greatly over the next few years are more likely to express a higher level of interest.  Likewise, respondents who are comfortable with the periodic revenue timeframe involved with short rotation woody systems are more likely to be highly interested. Finally it was shown that direct experience with woody biomass (e.g., for livestock use, firewood production) or who have planted trees for conservation incrementally increases interest in woody biomass as an energy crop.

While broad general interest in woody biomass appears strong enough to be suggestive of latent market capacity at least in the context of woody materials being a niche feedstock, there was a fairly low overall knowledge base regarding woody biomass systems (production and marketing) as well as limited collective direct experience in managing trees for biomass (for any purpose).  In order for farmers to be more comfortable in entering emergent biomass markets a number of policy-oriented actions would be facilatory:

• Technical information highlighting ways biomass plantings can be targeted to fit within and compliment existing environmental and production goals.
• Continued expansion of regional policy tools such as the USDA’s Biomass Crop Assistance Program which is designed to incentivize a system of tree establishment for biomass production.
• Additional environmental subsidies and emerging markets for ecosystem services have been noted for their potential role in supplementing low market prices for perennial feedstocks, such as through payments for carbon storage and sequestration.
• Finally, programmatic efforts to improve farmer self-efficacy through technical assistance, outreach conferences, and field-based workshops.

3) Financial Analysis of Potential Profitability.  Field-level financial spreadsheets are being calibrated for short-rotation woody biomass systems as well as complimentary agroforestry practices (e.g., woody vegetative environmental buffers, field windbreaks, tree-base riparian buffers) suitable for the NGP region. State specific break-even biomass prices and yields will be determined with these tools.

Impacts and Contributions/Outcomes

Research Presentations

Hand, A. & Tyndall, J. (2014, July). “There’s no instant gratification with trees”: A qualitative overview of agricultural producer interest in agroforestry for renewable energy production. Poster presented at the International Association of students in Agriculture and related Sciences (IAAS) World Congress, Ames, Iowa.

Hand, A. & Tyndall, J. (2014, June). US Great Plains Agroforestry: Examining Agricultural Producer Interest in Woody Systems for Bioenergy Feedstock Production. Presentation at the International Symposium on Society and Resource Management, Hannover, Germany.

Hand, A. & Tyndall, J. (2014, April). A qualitative examination of agricultural producer interest in agroforestry for renewable energy production. Poster presented at the Iowa State University Graduate Program in Sustainable Agriculture Spring Symposium, Ames, Iowa.

Manuscripts in Preparation for 2015 Submission

Hand, A, Bowman, T, Tyndall JC. Farmer and Rancher interest in producing woody biomass in the Northern Great Plains. To be submitted to: Agroforestry Systems (submission date Spring 2015).

Hand, A, and Tyndall JC. Farmer and Rancher perceptions of woody biomass systems in the Northern Great Plains. To be submitted to: the journal of Small-Scale Forestry.  (Submission date Summer 2015).

MS Thesis Completed

Hand, A. 2014. A mixed-methods exploration of farmer and rancher interest in supplying woody biomass in the U.S. Northern Great Plains. M.S. Thesis. Iowa State University.

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