Development of a Grower Tool to Predict Agave Productivity and Water Use Across Agricultural Regions

Commodities

• Additional Plants: other

Practices

• Crop Production: drought tolerance, irrigation, varieties and cultivars
• Education and Training: decision support system, extension, on-farm/ranch research
• Farm Business Management: budgets/cost and returns, feasibility study
• Production Systems: dryland farming

Arid and semi-arid regions across the Western United States face increasing challenges as groundwater declines in quantity and quality, creating uncertainty for agriculture. Sustainable crop production under low-input conditions on marginal lands is critical to long-term resilience. Agave, a drought-tolerant crop with extremely low water needs, has potential for food, fiber and industrial feedstocks, but its adoption in California has expanded rapidly without research-based guidance. Growers lack knowledge on species suitability, irrigation needs, and environmental stress responses.

This project addresses these knowledge gaps by developing a science-based framework for evaluating agave production across diverse environments in the Western United States.

To do so, we will combine field trials, controlled-environment experiments, mechanistic modeling, and outreach. Specifically, we will: 1) characterize the growth of five agave species/genotypes across eleven commercial sites capturing large environmental variability and management inputs; 2) quantify agave physiological response to cold and drought stress pot experiments; 3) study the long term effect of irrigation and cold temperature on agave growth in field trials; 4) develop a refined model that simulate productivity and water use across environments and used to develop an agave suitability map for growers use;5) perform a cost-benefit analysis of agave production in promising regions.

This project establishes a research-driven foundation for sustainable agave cultivation, reducing reliance on trial-and-error practices and mitigating agronomic and financial risks. By providing species-specific growth and water use data, it enables incremental improvements in productivity, pup propagation, and harvest timing, translating into increased revenue and reduced management costs. Beyond incremental gains, the project has transformative potential: integrating agave into marginal lands supports water conservation, soil fertility, and economic diversification, while fostering resilience in increasingly arid agricultural regions. Insights gained can inform specialty crop adoption globally, demonstrating how low-input perennial systems can maintain productivity and environmental benefits under abiotic and biotic stress.

Findings will be communicated through multi-level outreach to growers, industry stakeholders, scientists, and the public. An interactive, web-based decision-support tool will allow growers to evaluate species selection, productivity, water use, and economic viability. In-person field days and workshops will provide hands-on training, while instructional videos, brochures, and a project website will ensure long-term accessibility. Results will also reach scientific audiences through peer-reviewed publications, conferences, and seminars, and trade audiences via agricultural media. Surveys and website analytics will assess engagement and knowledge transfer. This strategy leverages existing networks including the UC Davis Agave Center, California Agave Council, and Cooperative Extension to maximize impact.

The project will produce: (1) data-driven guidance on agave species performance across California; (2) quantified responses to water and temperature stress; (3) a refined mechanistic model predicting productivity, water use, and biomass increase; (4) an interactive decision-support tool for growers; and (5) educational resources including field day experiences, workshops, brochures, and videos. Collectively, these outcomes will reduce financial risk, increase grower confidence, improve resource efficiency, and support responsible expansion of agave cultivation. The project will enhance economic diversification, promote sustainable land use, and contribute to long-term agricultural resilience under arid and semi-arid conditions.

Project Objectives

Research Objectives

Objective 1. Quantify agave growth and productivity in eleven commercial orchards across diverse growing environments of the Western US over two years

Objective 2. Characterize the physiological responses of two agave species to drought and cold stress through controlled pot experiments from spring 2027 to spring 2028

Objective 3. Characterize the growth responses of two agave species to different irrigation and temperature regimes in field experiments conducted over Years 1 and 2.

Objective 4. Develop and validate predictive models to identify high-potential regions for agave productivity across major environmental zones in the Western United States by the end of Year 3.

Objective 5. Perform a cost-benefit analysis of agave production in promising regions identified from the predictive models by the end of Year 3.

Educational Objectives

Objective 1. Develop and deploy a decision-support tool used by at least 300 stakeholders to predict agave productivity, water use, and profitability

Objective 2. Deliver at least 12 in-person education and training events reaching more than 300 stakeholders and increasing knowledge of agave production practices

Objective 3. Develop and disseminate at least six stand-alone educational resources accessed by at least 1,000 users to support long-term agave production decisions

Objective 4. Disseminate findings to scientific and public audiences through two peer-reviewed publications and multiple outreach channels reaching more than 500 individuals